The Shrinking Oncology Workforce and Its Impact on Supply and Demand
With changes in demographics and advancements in cancer care, the current oncologist workforce is expected to experience an imbalance in supply and demand.
Source: Examining the oncologist shortage. Medical Healthcare Solutions. January 2025
As of January 2025, there were 27,475 oncologists in the United States, of which approximately 43% specialize in hematology/oncology (Figure 1), according to a white paper from Medicus Healthcare Solutions.1 But with changes in demographics and advancements in cancer care, the current oncologist workforce is expected to experience an imbalance in supply and demand.
Exploring the oncologist workforce shortage from a supply and demand perspective reveals a significant shortfall in workforce projections. According to the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis,2 the increase in total supply of hematologists and oncologists from 2022 to 2037 is 7%, with a starting value of 23,090 and an ending value of 24,630. Looking at demand for the same period reveals a 15% increase in demand, with a starting value of 23,090 and an ending value of 26,620 (Figure 2).
Source: Health Resources and Services Administration, Health Workforce Projections
From 2012 to 2025, it is expected that the demand for oncologists and radiation oncologists will grow by 40%, outpacing the anticipated 25% increase in supply.1
According to the white paper, factors such as an aging population and workforce, trends in cancer incidence and monitoring, limited training opportunities, and persistent oncology burnout rates are all impacting the growing shortage of active oncologists.1 For example, the number of adults in the US who are 65 years or older is expected to double by 2030. Cancer diagnoses within this group is projected to increase by 67% between 2010 and 2030.
The aging population not only affects the number of patients with cancer, it also affects the number of oncologists in the workforce, as aging oncologists approach retirement age. Currently, the median age of oncologists is 53 years, with as many as 1 in 5 oncologists aged 65 years or older. Only 14.5% of oncologists are under 40 years of age.1
A recent article, Aging Population, Burnout Continue to Drive Oncology Workforce Shortage, featured an interview with Julie Gralow, MD, chief medical officer at the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). Gralow discussed a number of key factors driving the oncologist workforce shortage, including the impact of the 2020 pandemic, which continues to exert influence today.
She offered potential solutions to alleviate the imbalance including efforts to attract more medical students and residents to the field of oncology, increasing mentorship opportunities, and encouraging early clinical experience to the field.
Gralow noted the importance of systemic changes with efforts to support current oncologists to minimize administrative burdens, improve work-life balance, and continuing to encourage oncologists to keep connected with their patients to maintain job fulfillment and growth.
